Britain may be heading for hung Parliament

  • Britain may be heading for hung Parliament

Britain may be heading for hung Parliament

The new constituency-by-constituency modelling by the pollster YouGov - commisioned by The Times newspaper - showed on Tuesday that the Conservative party could lose 20 of the 330 seats it now holds and the opposition Labour Party could gain almost 30 seats.

Prime Minister Theresa May has said the "only poll that matters" is the one on June 8 while Labour's Angela Rayner dismissed the research, insisting Labour is "in it to win it".

The May 19-23 poll showed the Conservatives with 48 percent share of those certain to vote in the June 8 election versus 47 percent in a May 15 poll.

The decision was made on the back of polls that at times put the Conservatives 20 points ahead and on course for an overwhelming victory.

Strength in shares of big multinational companies such as British American Tobacco, Diageo and HSBC, which generate the majority of their revenue outside the United Kingdom, was enough to offset weakness in mining companies that suffered from a slump in prices of metals. But the Liberal Democrats are anti-Brexit, and may try to seek a deal with Labour, who want Britain to keep some aspects of European Union membership.

That would raise questions about the future of Brexit, Britain's $2.5 trillion economy and British policy on a range of issues including corporate taxation and government spending and borrowing.

The pound was also buoyed by pressure on the dollar after the latest Chicago purchasing managers' index showed the slowest rate of growth since January.

The model allowed YouGov to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted on Brexit, their age and social background, in order to weight the results.

In the strongest signal yet that the election is much closer than previously thought, May's lead has collapsed from 24 points since she surprised both rivals and financial markets on April 18 by calling the election, YouGov data showed.

"Memorably punchy YouGov seat projection is sophisticated analysis of micro-data, not polling", Andrew Cooper, the co-founder of Populus Ltd., and a former adviser to David Cameron, said on Twitter.

The conservatives are the right wing political party led by Theresa May.

Other projections suggested May would win soundly.

Labour's central estimate is 257, up from 229. "The YouGov estimate is a model based on polls and other factors".

Jim Messina, a polling and data adviser for the Conservative Party who worked on Barack Obama's campaign, said the YouGov numbers were stupid and that he had spent the day laughing at them.

The polling company's seat projection study for the Times has resulted in a constituency-by-constituency estimate, which indicates what could happen on a good night and bad night for the Conservatives.